The Psychology Behind Better Predictions

Some Rainbet players consistently predict at 85%+ accuracy. What do they know that others don't? Often, it's less about knowledge and more about avoiding psychological traps.

Anchoring Bias

When you see "67% say YES" on a Rainbet prediction, you're anchored to that number. Top predictors evaluate evidence independently before looking at community percentages. Try forming your own opinion first.

Confirmation Bias

We seek information that confirms what we already believe. If you think it'll rain in Tokyo, you'll unconsciously focus on data supporting rain. Force yourself to consider the opposing view.

Recency Bias

Recent events loom large. If Delhi had good AQI yesterday, we overweight that when predicting tomorrow. Top Rainbet predictors look at longer-term trends rather than just recent data.

Overconfidence

Most people are more confident than accurate. On Rainbet, this means players often ignore uncertainty. The best predictors know when to say "I'm not sure" and focus on predictions where they have genuine edge.

The Superforecaster Mindset

Research by Philip Tetlock shows that the best predictors share common traits: they update beliefs with new evidence, think in probabilities, and stay humble. Apply these principles to your Rainbet predictions.

Want to put your psychology to the test? Play prediction games on Rainbet and see how you stack up!